TheEEStory.com

Quite sobering!

So B, you are slowly starting to go through my path...
Next, you will realize the days of the dollar are counted. Guide to Investing in gold and silver by Mike Maloney should be your next assignment you give yourself... Another one is the crash course from ChrisMartenson.com (UK version is good too - available on youtube)

This guy sounds about right to me.

To me, the reason our civilization stands a good chance of collapsing, in the next couple of decades, has to do with oil.

It's actually quite simple, and has to do with oil, the amount of energy within oil to do work, and our dependence on that.

A tablespoon full of oil contains the same amount of energy, and can do the same amount of work, as a healthy young man can do, in 8 hours of labor. A small gas tank contains about the same amount of energy, as 2 years of labor from that same young man.

Civilizations require energy to function. The amount of energy required depends on the level of technological sophistication. Currently, all our technology depends on oil. Without oil, our civilization would collapse, overnight.

Our whole way of life has a tremendous subsidy from oil. Everything depends on oil, because oil does work, and it currently has no substitute. The cars we drive, our food production, our transport systems, the shape of our cities, our medicines and hospitals that keep us alive, all these depend on oil, and would collapse without it.

If you look around your room as you are reading this, or if you drive down the street, you could not describe what you are seeing to me, without me explaining, if asked, just how everything you see depends completely on oil.

Most people are only 3 square meals away from barbarism. I watched a documentary, Food, Inc., that explained that a farmer today can feed 125 people. And he can do so because of oil. Oil fuels farm machinery, allowing one man to do a tremendous amount of work.

Only a little over a hundred years ago, one farmer could feed 6 people. That meant the farm population was very large. Now that 1 man can feed 125, those people can go do something else, without worrrying about their food.

All pesticides and fertilizer are based on, and dependent on oil. The Green Revolution, which increased food production 30% worldwide, did so by using oil to come up with better farming methods. Without oil this would not have been possible.

Without that Green Revolution, a lot of people would have starved to death, this last century.

Jared Diamond has been talking about the collapse of our civilizations for a long time. He studies the civilizations that have collapsed, over the course of history. He thinks we have a few decades left.

If we are to survive, we need to do many things. One thing we need to do is find an alternative source of energy, other than oil, to run our economy on.

That is part of the reason I am interested in Eestor. If they come up with cheap energy storage, then that changes the way our economy works. Eestor could be a substitute for oil.

Dick Weir said, in regards to Eestor, "We make wind and solar real". What he meant is that, if you find a cheap way to store electricity, produced by wind and solar, then these forms of energy can become cheaper than coal-fired plants, and oil, and can replace oil.

Thus, electric cars, and Zenn Motors.

Oil works because it is energy dense, and transportable. If Eestor actually can come up with a cheap way to manufacture batteries that allow the cheap storage of electricity, and these batteries would be transportable, then portable electricity, in the form of a battery, would outcompete oil, on the market, and do the work, for our civilization, that oil currently does.

The significance of something like this could not be overstated.

It's my belief, and the belief of 50% of geologists, that we are at Peak Oil. Our civilization is at the start of a very long, downward slope, in the production of oil.

Quite frankly, this terrifies me, if true, and I think it is true.

The obvious reason this is really bad news for us, is again, everything depends on oil. However, everything, from airplanes, to trains, to trucks, all could run on electricity, if the problem of energy storage could be solved.

Then, perhaps, we could avert a crises to our civilization that comes from dependence on oil.

Incidently, that is why I supported the war in Iraq, although I loathe George Bush, and I am a hard-left Liberal. I knew the war was a lie, from the start, and there were no weapons of mass destruction.

The reason for the war? Why did I support the war? Iraq happens to be the very last place on earth where there is a cheap, and very large, amount of oil, which can be exploited.

Since our civilization runs on oil, and we are completely dependent on oil, and we would collapse without it, I felt we had no choice but to invade, in order to raise oil production levels. And I think the plan, kept from the public, will work.

Currently, the government is being put in place, in Iraq, and soon an oil law will be passed, which will open up oil production in Iraq, to foreign companies.

This will vastly increase the amount of oil available to run the global economy, and will do so, in a hurry.

Iraq has a goal of producing 12 million barrels of oil, within 7 years. Currently, they produce about 2 million barrels a day, according to reliable figures. This will put an extra 10 million barrels of oil, per day, on the market.

This is oil that is necessary, to keep our global economy going.

Geologists say Iraq has the geological potential to be the biggest oil producer in the world.

Without the war in Iraq, Saddam would not have upgraded oil production, and the world would have been terribly short of oil, as we are entering the downward slope, of Peak Oil.

The oil industry in Iraq, under Saddam, relied on local people to produce oil, and did not allow foreigners in. Iraq was not nearly living up to it's potential, as an oil producer, and the world needs that oil.

Iraq simply does not have enough educated engineers and technologists to upgrade their oil industry. And Saddam made it clear he had no intention of letting foreigners in. That's why he needed to be removed from office.

With the extra 10 million barrels a day, which will soon start to be pumped out of the ground, in Iraq, we will have a chance to avert disaster, or collapse, and will have the time necessary, to change our economy, and get off oil.

Using energy storage technology, combined with wind and solar and nuclear energy production, we still have a chance.

That's how I see things.

BTW, Ruppert is the author of Crossing the rubicon:
http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Rubicon-Decline-...

What surprises me most is you are listening to a guy who pointed to 9/11 conspiracy. Are you willing to join me in giving credibility to the theory that there was conspirators behind 9/11?
Tvillar will think your are a delusional.

Here is what amazon says about his book:
The attacks of September 11, 2001 were accomplished through an amazing orchestration of logistics and personnel. Crossing the Rubicon discovers and identifies key suspects - finding some of them in the highest echelons of American government - by showing how they acted in concert to guarantee that the attacks produced the desired result.

Crossing the Rubicon is unique not only for its case-breaking examination of 9/11, but for the breadth and depth of its world picture - an interdisciplinary analysis of petroleum, geopolitics, narco-traffic, intelligence and militarism - without which 9/11 cannot be understood.

Yes, oil is amazing stuff. But it would be a mistake to think that it can't be replaced and panic as a result. We wouldn't be here if we weren't looking for alternatives. I stopped believing that we were faced with the end of civilization when GM announced the Volt. IIRC they were the first major car manufacturer to announce a car that got most of its energy from the grid instead of oil. Peak Oil isn't an energy shortage problem, (there's a huge amount of NG left) it's a liquid fuel problem and it can be solved. Total collapse is possible, but it would be the worst case scenario. Pace

ONeil,

I agree with what you said.

However, America has a political problem. Republicans are in bed with big oil. The political system of the United States is corrupt, and is run by big money, from Big Pharma, Big Food, and Big Oil, just to name a few.

Republicans are just getting in the way, of solving our problems with oil.

For example, Republicans are against putting a price on carbon. Whether you believe in Global Warming or not, putting a price on carbon would signal to the free market, to start exploring alternatives to oil.

This would include Zenn and Eestor in the picture.

Assuming Eestor is not a pile of bullshit, and they do what they say, and make cheap batteries, then, if there was a price on carbon, it would be a strong signal to the market to encourage incredibly strong growth, in alternatives to oil, when they come out.

Again, that would mean, financially encouraging breakthroughs like Eestor, and Zennergy Drives, which could replace oil.

This would seem a sensible policy to me, to get America off depending on getting oil, from people who hate us, and want to destroy our civilization.

We could create our own energy, and keep our own money, keep it here at home, in America, instead of shipping hundreds of billions of dollars, overseas, to pay for oil, to places like Saudi Arabia, home of 19 out of 21, of the 9-11 highjackers.

I don't care to send my money to countries like that.

Republicans are against this change, and just want to keep the status quo going, even if we continue to have future wars over oil, like Iraq, that cost us $1 trillion dollars, and even if it means Americans are, in effect, funding both sides, in so-called War on Terror.

Most Republican leaders are either so corrupt, they only care about their own little silly careers, rather than what is good for the country, and they simply don't know enough about the energy picture, to understand what needs to be done.

So, Neil, of course you are right, the problem of oil is technically solvable. But are the political problems solvable?

I'm not so sure, about that one, judging by all the fighting and stupidity, and grandstanding, rather than thoughtful answers, that I see on the news nightly, coming from Washington.

Eggdescramble,

I'm not sure if 9-11 was a conspiracy. If it was a conspiracy, or not, I still end up with the same answer: we need to get off oil.

In the middle east, among Muslim oil-producing nations, about 90% of the Gross Domestic Product of those oil-producing countries, comes from oil.

Without oil, there would be no terrorism. Fanatical sects do exist within Islam, propelled by the intellectual elites within Islam, and are often tied to the political and economic elites of those societies.

For instance, the Bin Laden family, as you no doubt know, is extremely rich, and influential, produces many Muslim scholars, and is very influential, in Saudi politics and economics, and has lots of ties to the Bush family.

Out of that sordid cesspool of characters, we ended up with 9-11.

How do we change that?

It all comes back to oil, IMHO.

Without oil, Saudi Arabia would have no power. An economist once measured the entire non-oil economy of middle eastern Muslim countries. At the time, it equalled the economic output of one Finnish cell-phone company, Nokia.

Without oil, they just make nice Persian rugs, in Iran, and very good dates, from Saudi Arabia.

I buy dates from Saudi Arabia. I prefer Khalas brand dates. They are a big help to me, to keep me regular, in the morning, to help me take my morning dumps, and at the same time, make a political statement about the world...lol...

But seriously, if America gets off oil, Muslim middle eastern leaders would be forced to educate their populations, instead of keeping them dumb religious fanatics, and the Muslim elites would have to give their people more freedom, and Muslims would actually have to do something productive, and work for a living, in the modern world, instead of living on oil revenue.

This would be good for them, because at one time in history, Muslims were far more educated than Europeans, and produced a first-rate culture, within Islam.

Now, they are full of fanatical deadbeats, IMHO.

This getting off oil would put a nail in the coffin of terrorism, and it would mean America no longer would have to fight costly wars in the middle east, over oil.

Surely, we have learned our lesson by now, after a trillion dollar war over oil?

I hope so.

So, it may, or may not be, that 9-11 was a conspiracy. I don't know, myself. Either way, if we get off oil, it won't matter, and America will be safer, and richer.

It all comes back to oil, IMHO.

However, thanks for the tips. I'll look at Crossing the Rubicon. Thanks.

Oneil

Agree completely. The liquid fuel problem could be easily solved by a transition to nat gas if an EESU or equivalent is not available soon. But this would be just a medium term solution.

In the long run, the total electrification of our transportation will make oil irrelevant.

Even if total electrification of our transportation system doesn't happen, a crash program to develop the LFTR could be available within ten years.

With mass production, electricity prices would drop to the point that liquid fuels could be created directly from atmospheric CO2. This could also replace all fossil fuel-based fertilizers.

While I admit there may be some pain from peak oil if we do not do something soon, anyone who thinks it will be the end of civilization is just another conspiracy- theory nutjob.

Collapse is not new. It has happened before. Jared Diamond’s book with the same name enumerates many previous historical occurrences of collapse. He stops short of stating that we will collapse.
Jared Diamond is currently Professor of Geography and Physiology at UCLA.

I came to many of the same conclusions as Mr Ruppert a few years ago. Timbits 649 used a lot more words than I would have, but I agree completely with his analysis. Switching all our transportation needs yo electricity ( come on DW) will greatly reduce our oil addiction. Hopefully to the point where sustainable biofuels can take over.

Those who attempt to politicize this oil addiction trap should remember that Democrats and Republicans will starve at the same rate as commies and dictators. Cheap oil made mechanized farming possible. Mechanized farming made food cheap. When oil becomes expensive all our prosperity will disappear.
That is what Ruppert is saying. And yes, it really is just that simple.

Societies have always had collapse points. Ours is getting closer every day. Now that you know how and why we are heading for a collapse, how will you try to change it?

Christine, I saw a documentary on Diamond. He says we have a couple decades, if we don't change our ways. It's frightening when someone as intelligent as Diamond, who got a National Medal of Science Award, tells us our civilization may go down the toilet, if we don't change our ways. It's very hard to dismiss him as a crank.

Lowell, when greed and the status quo threaten our way of life, it's time for some leaders with courage and brains, to step up, and tell us the truth, instead of the usual b.s. and platitudes on the tube.

Eggdescrambler,

I spent a couple hours looking at Michael Rupert giving speeches on the internet, and reading about his theories. I agree with most of what he said, about the geo-politics of oil, and peak oil, and how it could and does affect our world.

His 9-11 conspiracy stuff, I don't think so. I doubt there was a conspiracy. I don't think there has to be a conspiracy, for everything he says happened. The facts of shortages of oil are frightening enough, and cause enought, enough to explain everything he talked about.

Dick Cheney is an asshole, IMHO, but Peak Oil could still screw us over, whether Dick Cheney was alive or not. Personalizing the problem of oil, by villainizing Bush and Cheney, as Rupert does, that doesn't help his case.

The facts of oil are frightening enough, and should scare the shit out of any sensible person.

And, as long as we give Muslim countries hundreds of billions of dollars a year, we can expect more trillion-dollars-wars over oil, and economic chaos, till we get off oil, if we don't destroy ourselves first.

God help us, because we seem too dumb to help ourselves.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52493

http://www.lbl.gov/solar/ipfiles/plenary/chu_So... slide 15-16

Thanks, Eestorblog. I didn't know Chu knew about Peak Energy. As one the slides in the link says, about alternative forms of energy, "We do not know how to cheaply store large amounts of electrical energy", (in relation to wind and solar)...I guess that is where Eestor supposedly comes in.

I am also not a conspiracy theorist, about energy. I don't need human villains. The scientific facts alone are enough to terrify me. thx

I do not think we will have one giant collapse. We had a collapse in financial markets in 2008. We are now in a very weak recovery. Before we fully recover, I believe we will have another collapse followed by a weak recovery. This pattern will repeat until we get off oil and make our new energy sources profitable and sustainable. Roman society did not collapse all in one day. Rome died of systemic failure over decades. Some parts of our system are very strong. Our energy system is presently the weak link and must be changed as it is the foundation of our prosperity.

Lowell,

sounds about right to me. I agree we have lots of problems, and may collapse as a country. But I think we have a choice, to fix our problems, if we have the wisdom to make good choices....or not.....

There is no guarantee of survival for any country, or species for that matter.

One sobering scientific fact I stumbled on years ago, and never forgot, is that, in the long course of evolution on earth, out of all the lifeforms that have arisen, 99% have gone extinct.....so far....

We're on our own, is my belief. Do the right thing, we survive. Don't do the right thing, we perish. That's the way of nature.

It's not a game, and not pretend.

All our technology creates a comfortable illusion that life, especially human life, is permanent.

Don't believe it.

It's a lie.

Nothing is permanent.

Certainly not The United States of America.

There is little certainty in life.

However, one thing I do know for certain, and we agree on: we need to change our energy system, or we will collapse.

It's really that simple.

thx

Then B, don't even read the beginning of this guys book (Crossing rubicon) available freely for excerpt on Amazon.com in dangerous case he convinces you. Particularly Page 11 where he states:
"Before we move on, consider another salient demonstration that Condi Rice and the President were lying: On August 21, 2002, the Associated Press published the following story, so shocking in the context of the administration's claims that I'll quote it at length: (And he quote this AP)
(The white house claim was they didn't had a clue terrorist would use planes):
http://www.boston.com/news/packages/sept11/anni...

The potential for collapse comes from dependence on oil. America may collapse. China has other plans. They are set to install 500 Megawatts of renewable energy to their grid, by 2020. America, in the meantime, plans to add 16 gigawatts to it's grid, in that time, provided it can win all the legal battles against people who are opposed to renewable energy. (not likely)

http://cleantechnica.com/2010/12/04/china-addin...

Correction: 500 Gigawatts, and 16 Gigawatts.

Ugh... Yea, lets see,
Chain Smoker--yes
Disheveled--yes
Paranoid--yes
Idiations of grandeur--yes
Narcissistic--a definate maybe

My own take on the movie is that it was a big waste of time. He has simply picked up on one issue and made a "life" out of it.

Unless I missed something, he didn't even mention Nuclear Power (presently 14% of the worlds supply of electricity).

Worst case scenario, we could convert to nuclear and get along just fine.

No more sky is falling storie please.

BProscott:

Evolutionary Hypothesis: Why do chain smoking, disheveled, paranoid, narcissistic people, with delusions of grandeur exist? Why are they able to captivate the imagination of thousands of people? What is their biological function within existing social structures? Everything in nature has a "purpose" at least in the evolutionary sense.

Hypothesis: Human beings are genetically wired to respond to immediate, visceral, physical threats. A lion is stalking up in the grass, for example.

Very few humans exist in what I call "hyper-imaginative space", that is, in a self-selected and constructed world of ideas. Most humans live and respond to the physical and social reality they live in.

My grandfather was quite a paranoid man. He told me the true story once, of how he avoided death, in the Second World War. He used to follow politics very carefully, in the 1930s. He figured out that there would be a war with Germany, long before it happened. He prepared by taking some military training, that allowed him to escape combat by becoming a military instructor. He said to me, "I knew are was coming long before the dummies had figured it out. I didn't want to be in the PBI"...what's the PBI, gramps?", I asked.

"The poor bloody infantry, Tim. Those fellows take almost all the casualties, in war"

...So my grandfather's paranoia might have saved his skin. He sat out the war, safe in Canada, as an instructor.

Now, nuclear bombs were built out of human imagination and intelligence. Many scientist tell us that global warming and Peak Oil could finish us off. It is very difficult for the average person to conceptualize these threats. Most people don't have the time, or inclination.

But a few people do. Paranoid, delusional people, usually. People like my grandfather. People like Rupert. My guess is, evolution kept people like that around simply because many threats are highly abstract, and imaginary. Most people are not equipped to perceive them. We need to keep a few people around to warn us of dangers. Often, they may be wrong. Sometimes, they may be right, and should be listened to.

Is the sky falling? Maybe.

Perhaps, the illusion of safety is the biggest delusion of all.

Are you the 100th monkey?

The 100th monkey is just a myth, although my ears do look suspiciously monkey-like.

For the record, my question was rhetorical and was not directed at you TimBitts649, or any other particular person. If we don't reach a critical tipping point of concensus to change what is needed to change, as a species, then it seems reasonable that in time, time will simply tell. BTW, I think your ears look fine. Don't be so self conscious.

Oops, there I go, answering rhetorical questions. Silly me.

OK, so my ears look fine. thx.

There goes the neighborhood:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JKWhxNoq5k&...

TimBitts649
Wow, I read your response to my thread a couple of times. And, all I can say is that you will fit right in here at theeestory.com site.

No, I am not dogging you...much, just having a bit of fun at your elongated backhanded criticisim of my original criticisim.

Just goes to prove that this forum is as interesting as the topic it strains to cover.

Lets all agree that a product like the eesu could really make a wonderful difference in our world.

Oh, and just so you know, I live in SD near a large body of water and lots of cattle and bins full of grain near by. (not to mention a years supply of basic necessaties and a home with an earth berm design) So I think I may be prepared better than most for that falling sky thing:)

Your grandpa would be proud of me...

Bproscott, you sound well prepared.

You may have been a boy scout.

My own guess is that the next big thing to happen will be a worldwide pandemic that'll kill 100 million people or more. You'll have a good place to hang out, waiting for a vaccine.

Earth berm is pretty good thing, though rare.

Let me guess. You live near Lake Oahe, near the Cheyenne Indian Reservation?

A lot of people on this site I consider to be strangers. The more I interact with them, the stranger they get!

I do live near lake Oahe and the Reservation.

Earth berm as in more of the house is more underground then above (actually I am built into a hillside with the front facing South for passive soalar gain in the winter... (my heat is usually less than $400 for the entire year)

As far as pandemics are concerned, did you know that approximately 10 million children die annually in third world countries. One of the major causes is clean water... yep clean water.

I know we all get excited about new energy systems and technology to change the world, but we forget that for most people the need is for better water purification systems.

A friend of mine has come up with a solor oven and water purification process that he is going to submit as a free design so that charitable organizations can build and distrubte as cheaply as the market will allow. (his group sent 500 to Haiti earlier this year--at no cost to the Haitians)

Who would think that a solor oven would be more important than a $100.00 laptop.

Yes, this is strange, but then truth is usally stranger than fiction.

BProscott, no I did not know that about so many kids dying from problems with water. Quite sad. Rich countries could do a lot more to end misery, in 3rd world countries.

Your friend sounds like a hero. When people die, they usually think about the good they have done. Your friend has done some good for the world.

I've only seen one berm up close, on the outside. Pretty amazing. My brother builds straw bale houses, and built one, in Canada, due north of where you are, in Manitoba.

I might get one built yet, or a berm.

Are they comfortable to live in?

I'd like to be off the grid, if possible.

While I call it an Earth berm design, most would just call it a house built into the side of a hill.

The real difference was made when I built the walls out of Styrofoam and Concrete (all the way to the rafters).

The walls ended up being 13in deep and having an R50 rating.

As a result the house if very comfortable (not hot or cold areas like most houses) Just very even temp throughout--this is due in part to the insulating value of the foam/concrete and the thermal mass nature of the monolithic slab.

Also, when you build such a tight house with high R/values, you need to undersize the AC unit so that it will run at least 15 min when cooling. Otherwise you may get some molds from humidity building up during the Summer.

Oh, and I agree about my friend being a hero. I too was unawhere that there was so much death and misery around the world for such a low tech problem.

He really doesn't want any fame or fortune. He just wants to make a difference. Something we can all aspire to.

BProscott,

if the human race is to be saved from it's own folly, it will be done by unsung heroes, like your friend.

On your house, my only concern with concrete would be, you gotta be REAL sure to get all the holes for windows, and other things in, the FIRST time!

YOu don't wanna use a jackhammer, to make a window!

Sounds like a well-built house. There are straw-bale houses around, in Pennsylvania, that are a couple hundred years old now. I'm guessing your house will be there for a few hundred years?

One thing that has always been in my mind, is to some day, build an extra-ordinarily well built house, that would last for centuries, and then put in something in the house, to tell the people, hundreds of years from now, who I was, and what my life was about.

I guess some kind of a time capsule or something. Something that would last for thousands of years, be physically practically indestructable, like in 2001, A Space Odessey, with the black slab.

The Pharoahs had their pyramids to say, "I was here"....Someday, I'd like to built mine, before I go.

I grew up on the Canadian Prairies, two generations removed from Canadian pioneers, and with a keen interest in the old West, and bison etc. My hope is that, the natural prairie will come back in time, with bison and antelope and grizzly bears, roaming the prairie, as in the old days.

My own guess is our culture is headed for a cliff, as per the Oldivi Theory. A few things will survive the centuries....rust never sleeps

Anyhow,

On Zenn, I have no idea if I am throwing my money away on investing in Zenn, but I believe real solutions are out there, like your friend came up with, and people have to try new things, even if most fail.

It's like ice hockey. Most of the time, you take a shot on net, it doesn't go in. You can have 50 shots on net in a game, and only 2-3 go in.

My little investment in Zenn is a shot on goal. It probably won't go in, but who knows? The more shots on goal, the better chance we have to come up with real solutions for people.

And I guess that's my little contribution, to all the problems on this planet. So, if I lose money, it doesn't bother me. Life goes on, for me.