We tend to look at things from a static viewpoint. However, practically speaking, the cost of oil has increased dramatically as compared to inflation. Predicting the future is always a guess. But looking at the recent price for oil (last 10 years) shows a troubling trend. So when I look at the evidence, oil production increases, etc., that would happen in a normal market they haven't existed for oil. Even with every possible straw in the ground (i.e. 2007-2008) world oil production was flat. I tend to ignore the conspiracy theorists because too many oil execs say they are concerned also. Note nominal and inflation adjusted oil prices in the chart below. I've added the current price and green trend line. The data is from inflationdata.com.
It's a scary slope.