TheEEStory.com

ee-tom wrote:

People do have biases. scientists as much as anyone else.

T Huxley wrote:

Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abysses nature leads, or you shall learn nothing

However he also, equally famously, wrote:

T Huxley wrote:

The deepest sin of the human mind is to believe things without evidence

Finally, to complete the quotes, it is useful to remember:

Carl Sagan wrote:

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

My point is that without detailed evaluation, an unbiassed person should think Eestor chaces are low, because they make claims so different from anyone else in the field - 100X is not an incremental development - and have provided so little empirical evidence to back this up. Huxley's "sit down like a child" quote could be taken as a warning to skeptics not to assume their pet theories are correct. But equally it is an admonition to Dick Weir and others not to construct castles in the air. I find the "believer" explanations for Eestor secrecy and lack of prototypes to be this sort of "castle in the air". It is not backed by empirical evidence when the much simpler explanation is that "prototypes have not been demosntrated because they do not exist (or work adequately)".

That is not a simpler explanation. As you say, the empirical evidence available is minute. The amount of psychological, socioeconomic and historical evidence on the other hand is quite extensive, but largely excluded. This betrays an analytical bias borne of an inability or a simple failure to process certain types of evidence. This isn't unusual.

My (always ongoing) analysis of the situation includes fundamental technical and scientific basics. I conclude that EEStor's claims do not violate conservation of energy, nor are they necessarily inconsistent with basic electrostaic theory. Based on the paultry empirical evidence available, this is as deep a scientific analysis as can legitimately be made and really all that is required due to the rest of the evidence available - ie, the claims are not prima facae scientifically impossible.

The bulk of the available evidence includes the life history of individuals and their scientific, technical and familial backgrounds, as well as their personal investments both financial and social. It includes the dymanics of business to business relations and the historical and regulatory framework in which it evolves. It includes interpersonal relationships and how these relationships and the business frameworks inter-relate. These aspects of the story have been done to death on this blog already. Lastly, it is also about the historical dynamics of science itself:


An Unexpected Discovery Could Yield A Full Spectrum Solar Cell
ScienceDaily (Nov. 19, 2002) - BERKELEY, CA - Researchers in the Materials Sciences Division (MSD) of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, working with crystal-growing teams at Cornell University and Japan's Ritsumeikan University, have learned that the band gap of the semiconductor indium nitride is not 2 electron volts (2 eV) as previously thought, but instead is a much lower 0.7 eV. "...indium nitride's band gap was reported to be 2 eV, nobody could get light out of it at 2 eV," Walukiewicz says. "All our efforts failed."

Me: The 2 eV bandgap was considered established fact by the scientific community, until tests were performed on ultra pure indium nitride crystals. If Quantum ElectroDynamics is as accurate a description of the quantum realm as I believe it is, then why do we keep seeing these kinds of reports over and over again? It's simple: you can't work out the quantum effects of a system until you "think up" a specific system. Problem is, the combination of different materials and combinations of materials, purities, scales, combinations of scales, geometric arrangements, activity time scales, environmental factors, etc, is for all practical purposes, infinite. You can't "anticipate" and then "apply QED" to an infinite number of possibilities. Consequently, there will always be a steady stream of breakthrough discoveries that the scientific community deemed "impossible" or simply couldn't forsee.

Here's some more examples:

Surprising discovery: Multicellular response is 'all for one'
"This was surprising - that two neurons control the response of the 957 other cells in C. elegans," said Richard I. Morimoto, Bill and Gayle Cook Professor of Biochemistry, Molecular Biology and Cell Biology in Northwestern's Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences. He led the research team.

Surprising Discovery: Planet Mercury Has a Liquid Core
To achieve this result, they measured small twists in the planet's rotation by using a new technique that used a radio signal sent from a ground telescope in California that bounced off the planet and was then caught again in West Virginia. "If you had such a lighter element polluting the iron, it could explain why the core has remained fluid up to the present time," said Margot. "The surprise," Margot added, "is that you don't expect sulfur to condense out at the distance of Mercury from the Sun."

Surprising discovery leads to new twist on evolution
"It didn't seem possible at first," says Dr. Jack Werren, team leader at the University of Rochester and a world-leading authority on the parasite, Wolbachia. "This parasite has implanted itself inside the cells of 70 per cent of the world's invertebrates, coevolving with them. And now, we've found at least one species where the parasite's entire or nearly entire genome has been absorbed and integrated into the host's. The host's genes actually hold the coding information for a completely separate species."
W. Ford Doolittle, Canada Research Chair in Comparative Microbial Genomics at Dalhousie University, who is not connected to the study, stated that this "stunning evidence" is "like science fiction becoming reality".

An electrifying discovery
Two scientists in Bangalore, Ajay Sood and Shankar Ghosh, make a discovery with great potential for technology application - that electricity can be generated through the flow of gases over solids. The finding has been reported in the August 20 issue of the prestigious journal Physical Review Letters.
The curious question, however, still remains: Why was this phenomenon not discovered before? "The existence of such pressure and temperature difference was not unknown," points out Ramaswamy. "The clever idea (of Sood and Ghosh) here is that this classical effect of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics can give rise to a voltage and an electric current along a solid surface. Not entirely surprisingly, it seems no one thought of connecting a voltmeter across an aerofoil in a wind tunnel and looked for millivolt potential differences." There is nothing in the nature of the experiment, including the levels of precision required in measuring the various parameters, to suggest that the discovery could not have been made, say at least 50 years ago. Only, no one thought of doing the experiment.

Discovery could bring widespread uses for (metallic) nanocrystals
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - Researchers at Purdue University have made a surprising discovery that could open up numerous applications for metal "nanocrystals," or tiny crystals that are often harder, stronger and more wear resistant than the same materials in bulk form. However, nanocrystals have been far too expensive and difficult to produce to be of any practical industrial or commercial use. The cost of making nanocrystals is at least $100 per pound, while nanocrystals of certain metals critical to industry cannot be made at all with present laboratory techniques, said Chandrasekar and Dale Compton, also a professor of industrial engineering at Purdue.
"Our contribution has been in developing a process that we think can be used to make these materials in large quantities at very low cost," Chandrasekar said. "The cost is expected to be no more than $1 per pound, plus the initial cost of the bulk material."

Surprising immune system cells discovery
Interestingly, if not for a minor mishap while carrying out an experiment, the authors might not have discovered the existence of these physical (nano-tubular) structures and conducted the studies that revealed their role in intercellular communication. "It's one thing to find that this intricate physical network exists but quite astonishing to learn that immune system cells are using it to relay molecular signals to one another," said Dr. Watkins, professor and vice chair, department of cell biology and physiology, and director of the Center for Biologic Imaging, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine.
"This is clearly a third form of intercellular communication, distinct from gap junctions (in heart cells) and synapses used by nerve cells. And, it is possible that tunneling nanotubules are essential for the function of the immune system, just as gap junctions are critical for the function of cardiac muscle. Exactly how this is so, we don't know," added Dr. Watkins, who also is a professor of immunology.

Students Use VLA to Make Startling Brown-Dwarf Discovery
Their surprising discovery is forcing experts to re-think their theories about how brown dwarfs work. "What is so cool is that this is research that probably nobody else would have tried to do because of its low chance of success." "The radio emission these students discovered coming from this brown dwarf is 10,000 times stronger than anyone expected," said Dale Frail, an astronomer at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) in Socorro, NM.
"This student project is going to open up a whole new area of research for the VLA," Frail added. "Everybody we talked to said there was almost no chance that we'd see anything at all," said Becker.
The strong radio emission was unexpected because brown dwarfs, according to conventional theories, are not supposed to have magnetic fields strong enough to generate the radio emission. "The presumed internal structure of a brown dwarf will not permit a strong enough magnetic field," said Frail. "It looks like we're going to have to re-examine how we believe brown dwarfs work," he said.

Astrophysicists announce surprising discovery of extremely rare molecule in interstellar space
The molecule in question is called "triply deuterated ammonia," meaning that each molecule is composed of a nitrogen atom and three deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen), rather than the usual single nitrogen atom and three hydrogen atoms found in the typical bottle of household ammonia. While not unknown on Earth, the molecules, until recently, were thought by experts to be quite rare - so rare, in fact, that the substance was considered too sparse to even be detectable from Earth.
"From simple statistics alone, the chances for all three hydrogen atoms in an ammonia molecule to be replaced by the very rare deuterium atoms are one in a million billion," Phillips explains. "This is like buying a $1 state lottery ticket two weeks in a row and winning a $30 million jackpot both weeks."

UV Light Discovery Surprises Scientists
PULLMAN, Wash. - Ultra violet light triggers plant defense mechanisms.
This surprising discovery by Washington State University scientists was totally unexpected and is the opposite of what scientists had assumed about the ways that ultra violet light influences plants.
It is of such a fundamental nature that Clarence Ryan, a member of the Academy of Sciences, believes it will impact both plants and animals.
These findings by a team of four WSU scientists in the Institute of Biological Chemistry and the Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics were reported in the Oct. 31 issue of "Nature".
The scientists discovered that ultra violet light activates a series of over 15 defense proteins. "When we saw the result we became very excited about it," Ryan says. "This is something that no one even suspected."

UNL scientists strike gold with discovery of first metal hollow cages
Lincoln, Neb., May 17th, 2006 - University of Nebraska-Lincoln scientists looking to fill gaps in basic understanding about gold's structure at the nanoscale has turned up a full-sized and surprising discovery -- hollow cage-like structures made of pure gold atoms.
These structures, many of which look somewhat like bird cages, can host an atom inside. Scientists might someday be able to harness these truly tiny cages to carry useful guest atoms for medical or industrial purposes.
"I'm excited by this discovery. These are the first metal hollow cages," Zeng said. "No one expected the cage structure. It was a shocking surprise."

Unexpected Explosion Keeps Pakhomov "Waiting"
Most of the time, when Dr. Andrew Pakhomov, Dr. Don Gregory and their graduate students conduct laser propulsion experiments, they measure laser pulses and the reactions that the lasers cause in from a millionth or a few billionths of a second. That's why Pakhomov and graduate student Shane Thompson were so surprised when lasers firing into a lead target produced a powerful explosion exactly 50 microseconds after the initial blast of ionized particles went away. Every time.
It takes about one microsecond for the ionized lead plasma to leave the target surface - at about 20 kilometers per second. Then, like clockwork, exactly 50 microseconds later the surface of the lead target explodes with a burst of particles which emit high energy ultraviolet light. "But what does the energy do for 50 microseconds?" Pakhomov asks. "Where does (the energy) go? It seems to disappear. We cannot see where it goes. What form does it take? This is really a mysterious thing," says Pakhomov, an assistant physics professor at UAH. "Now we are writing a detective story."

Discovery could lead to new ways to create nano-fibers and wires
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - A research team led by engineers at Purdue University and physicists at the University of Chicago has made a discovery about the formation of drops that could lead to new methods for making threads, wires and particles only a few nanometers wide. Scientists hope to eventually produce wires so thin that their diameter is smaller than the width of an electron's wavelength, which could be used to dramatically alter the flow of electricity and heat. It is possible that other researchers might use such wires to develop a new class of electronics, solid-state refrigerators, air conditioners and power generators. "People should understand the benefits of basic research and how it results in discoveries that were not predicted," Basaran said. "Initially we just thought it was a new scientific discovery, which it is because it violates everything that was known," Basaran said. "This thin thread forms so slowly - which was also unexpected - that you have enough time to solidify it into a filament or wire."

Microscopic discovery no small find
Natalie Vacha, Gauntlet News - Researchers at the University of Calgary have made a surprising discovery in the field of cellular biology--a previously undiscovered part of the cell called GW bodies. "This is very different from what most people learn in cellular biology," said Dr. Marvin J. Fritzler, U of C professor of medicine, biochemistry and molecular biology. "We weren't surprised," said Fritzler. "Initially we were frightened. We thought we might have made a mistake." But, there was no mistake, the team discovered a bona fide new cellular structure, and that was not all.



Note the statements from the experts in the field (true experts - not anyone on this internet blog):

"...nobody could get light out of it at 2 eV," Walukiewicz says. "All our efforts failed."

"The surprise," Margot added, "is that you don't expect sulfur to condense out at the distance of Mercury from the Sun."

" There is nothing in the nature of the experiment ... to suggest that the discovery could not have been made, say at least 50 years ago. Only, no one thought of doing the experiment.

"This is clearly a third form of intercellular communication ... Exactly how this is so, we don't know,".

"Everybody we talked to said there was almost no chance that we'd see anything at all,"

From simple statistics alone, the chances for all three hydrogen atoms in an ammonia molecule to be replaced by the very rare deuterium atoms are one in a million billion,".

"When we saw the result we became very excited about it," Ryan says. "This is something that no one even suspected.

"No one expected the cage structure. It was a shocking surprise."

"Where does (the energy) go? It seems to disappear. We cannot see where it goes. What form does it take? This is really a mysterious thing,"

"Initially we were frightened. We thought we might have made a mistake." But, there was no mistake, the team discovered a bona fide new cellular structure, and that was not all.

"Initially we just thought it was a new scientific discovery, which it is because it violates everything that was known,"

"It didn't seem possible... this stunning evidence is like science fiction becoming reality".


EEStor isn't the first company making extraordinary claims that I've evaluated. When I heard of Stoern, I investigated it then dismissed it - the claim was scientifically ridiculous. I've investigated Blacklight, and while I haven't dismissed it out of hand, it hasn't reached my "trip point" of percieved validity. There is an indirect investment play available here similar to Zenn but I haven't bought in. I check the developments from time to time. I've investigated Polywell and find it even more compelling than Blacklight. If there was an investment route into Polywell I might be tempted to take it, but not quite. I'm watching it very closely.

As many may recall from one of my first posts, when I first heard about the EESU I investigated EEStor and Zenn that evening and by the end of the night had decided to invest everything I had (which admittedly wasn't much) in Zenn. As an exercise in non-science based analysis, you might want to try and figure out why I assessed these four companies so differently.

Future history will determine whether EEStor's EESU is legitimate. To predict this future history is not a job for Carl Sagan as you suggest, it's a job for Sherlock Holmes.

Last edited Sun, 02 Aug 2009, 6:04pm by Daniel R Plante

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