TheEEStory.com

Here is an excellent interview linked from oil drum.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50109

The US has experienced six recessions since 1972. At least five of these were associated with oil prices. In every case, when oil consumption in the US reached 4% percent of GDP, the US went into recession. Right now, 4% of GDP is $80 oil. So that’s my current view: If the oil price exceeds $80, then expect the US to fall back into recession.

---

Hmmm, I thought the conventional wisdom was that we'd already passed peak oil. Looking at the Wikipedia article, their chart looks like it's still going up. So I guess we haven't passed the peak yet. Might be very soon, tho.

---

Lensman wrote:

Hmmm, I thought the conventional wisdom was that we'd already passed peak oil. Looking at the Wikipedia article, their chart looks like it's still going up. So I guess we haven't passed the peak yet. Might be very soon, tho.

hy there: this reply was on the nissan link in the chat at 3:43,14 Sep, is that statement, that the US has 160 years of natural gas reserves true? If yes, why sould you need an eesu say for the next 50 years? quote: I would not buy an electric car. I live in Central Florida and when I was working, now retired I had to drive to work 60 miles to 65 miles one way. Then coming home I would be stuck in traffic for a half hour at a snails pace. I am now retired and to get to the Beach is anywhere from 65 to 85 miles one way. I would hate to get stuck in between the cities as it would be a desolate area. I will continue to buy gasoline and if they ever come out with a Natural Gas vehicle, I will convert my car to that. We have an abundance of Natural Gas in America, enough to fuel all cars, trucks houses and industry for 160 years if we keep it here in America and not squander it internationally to make a profit. We should use Natural gas and keep it here in America. Electric is not the answer and the batteries will break the average American to replace and besides that would be a pain in the rear.

energy investor wrote:
Just to add to the fun, I have sent a prediction to my investment group today, suggesting they beware a further collapse in world economies around October. The Dow to rise to 10,000 and then drop to below 7,000.....

can I join the group?

nino45 wrote:

I am now retired and to get to the Beach is anywhere from 65 to 85 miles one way.

If you keep driving fossil fuel cars, that beach will be closer soon ;-)

---

Lensman wrote:

Hmmm, I thought the conventional wisdom was that we'd already passed peak oil. Looking at the Wikipedia article, their chart looks like it's still going up. So I guess we haven't passed the peak yet. Might be very soon, tho.

From the interview I linked ... we are now in a plateau now. It is anybody's guess when we slip into decline on the back side of this plateau. Important thing is demand is growing where as as the supply is flat.

Question: Your recent paper makes it sound as if we’ve been on an oil production plateau since late 2004.

Kopits: That’s correct. If I dispassionately just look at the numbers, the oil supply has not improved that much since the 4th quarter of 2004. And I don’t see anything on the horizon that makes it appear that we’re going to break out into a really new level of production that’s far different than what we have today. So if we’re talking about practical peak oil, my view is that it started in late 2004.

Question: What’s your sense of when we slip into decline on the back side of this plateau?

Kopits: It’s hard to say. From my perspective, the inception of decline is less important than the gap between supply and demand. If China weren’t growing so fast, peak oil could come and go without us noticing for some time. Now, even if the oil supply grows, it will not likely catch up with demand. So we can suffer the economic impacts of peak oil even with a modestly growing oil supply. Essentially, that’s the story of oil from late 2004 until mid 2008.

---

This is by ASPO president.

http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/reply-to-n...

The current reality seems to be a production plateau with production varying within plus or minus 4% of 85 million barrels per day. The plateau began in 2005 and production may well decline from that point during the next five to ten years.

---

evnow wrote:

This is by ASPO president.

http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/reply-to-n...

The current reality seems to be a production plateau with production varying within plus or minus 4% of 85 million barrels per day. The plateau began in 2005 and production may well decline from that point during the next five to ten years.

After studying Peak Oil for a month, I've concluded that this is the new reality. Also, the Oil Drum and other sources conclude that the transition to other fuels with take over ten years with much chaos. Once the decline in oil production is accepted it's game on.

http://newenergyandfuel.com/

Oh Oh, more bad news for the treehugger elites. It looks like the man thingy things are devising new and more advanced ways to extract oil from the ground of our beautiful god, I mean earth. How are we going to advance our propaganda/lies about peak oil now? How are we going to keep scaring them enough to take their money away from them and spend it on some wild government run alternative energy plan that does not work. We need to send off a letter to our faithful.

Dear Treehugger Elites
In spite of our efforts, the ignorant man things continue to come up with new ways to fuel the cars that they drive and the planes that they fly, (them not us), with evil oil. Our efforts to scare them have been unsuccessful and I dare say that it appears on the surface that there could indeed be a God working in their favor and showing them new ways to provide for their expanding masses. Bahahahahahahah, just kidding of course. Please advise all or your associates in the mainstream media, (except for stupid fox and talk radio), to redouble their efforts and make sure that information like this never sees the light of day. I in turn will send off letters to our eestory operatives, Evnow, semblance, and ricino, and instruct them to poke holes in this information and declare it BIG OIL motivated lies. Please keep up the good work since we are on the verge of ushering in a new revolution by destroying capitilism and the united states economy by our ball and chain tactics.

PS, Always remember that our dear leaders, Barack Hussein Obama Ooo oooo ooo ooo, Fidel Castro and Raul, Kim Jong ILL, Chavez and Putin are behind you all the way. They see you hard work and you will be rewarded in heaven (if there was one) for your efforts.

Sincerely
USTRA President

---

HEEman wrote:

http://newenergyandfuel.com/


Oh Oh, more bad news for the treehugger elites. It looks like the man thingy things are devising new and more advanced ways to extract oil from the ground of our beautiful god, I mean earth. How are we going to advance our propaganda/lies about peak oil now? How are we going to keep scaring them enough to take their money away from them and spend it on some wild government run alternative energy plan that does not work. We need to send off a letter to our faithful.

Dear Treehugger Elites
In spite of our efforts, the ignorant man things continue to come up with new ways to fuel the cars that they drive and the planes that they fly, (them not us), with evil oil. Our efforts to scare them have been unsuccessful and I dare say that it appears on the surface that there could indeed be a God working in their favor and showing them new ways to provide for their expanding masses. Bahahahahahahah, just kidding of course. Please advise all or your associates in the mainstream media, (except for stupid fox and talk radio), to redouble their efforts and make sure that information like this never sees the light of day. I in turn will send off letters to our eestory operatives, Evnow, semblance, and ricino, and instruct them to poke holes in this information and declare it BIG OIL motivated lies. Please keep up the good work since we are on the verge of ushering in a new revolution by destroying capitilism and the united states economy by our ball and chain tactics.

PS, Always remember that our dear leaders, Barack Hussein Obama Ooo oooo ooo ooo, Fidel Castro and Raul, Kim Jong ILL, Chavez and Putin are behind you all the way. They see you hard work and you will be rewarded in heaven (if there was one) for your efforts.

Sincerely
USTRA President

Wow, that's almost 2 weeks worth! But why do reserves keep dropping? Why did peak oil already occur in 1971 in the US? We've never pumped more than we did 38 years ago! That seems like a sure sign that peak oil is a conspiracy theory. I'm sure is just because it's not worth getting. Of course, you have to understand that that is part of peak oil...the point where it is no longer advantageous to pull it out of the ground because the ROI is negative. But you clearly have little use for looking at the big picture. Better to focus on some tiny well in Kern County.

---

Right. World oil production peaked in 2008, and has plateaued since 2005. We may find out for sure by 2011, as world demand rises soaking up any reserved production. Oil prices will likely rise to over $100/bbl, perhaps causing another world wide recession. If world oil production is unable to rise, the only alternative is likely to be demand destruction via recession.

Invest_manager wrote:

Today oil closed at $71.23, up $1.78. How many here believe in "Peak Oil?" I'm a believer, and believe we're close or at the point where oil production cannot be increased. This could mean much higher oil prices in the next few years because Asian demand keeps increasing. Very good for EEstor.

And much better for Li-batteries, because these are real :-)

But even at today's low oil price (it's only 50% of that of a year ago!) oil rs gasoline is a much more expensive source of energy for driving a car than renewable energy. Electricity from wind energy today costs 10 Cts/kWh, and an EV can use about 70 to 80% of that for it's movement. This is less than 15 Cts for one kWh of usable energy from wind.

Gasoline today costs about 45 Cts/liter and this is about 5 Cts per kWh of it's energy content. However, a car with an ICE can use only 20% of that for it's movement, and this makes 25 Cts for one kWh of usable energy from oil.

http://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandf...

Gosh dang it, more bad news. It looks like the blood sucking BIG OIL bastards are trying to get their greedy littly paws into the pure as the driven snow clean energy field. Will someone tell these pieces of poo to get the hell out now. Isn't it bad enough that they use the pirated money that they get from the evil American polluters and are now using it to advance a potentially self sustaining, (without government intervention), fuel supply. They are not fooling us with this crap. I feel we need to send out another letter to our brethren.

Dear fellow Treehugger Elite Zombies

We have found more evidence of those capitalist POS trying to enter our field of expertise. They are ruining all of our latest efforts of destroying the looser american economy by devising a means of producing clean diesel for the masses.

Two of our greatest fears are coming to a head at once in this scenario. They are actually trying to find a way that makes money for thier investors, that doesn't soak the public, and they are going to sway the masses into thinking that they do care about the planet because they live on it too. Now we the treehugging elite know that these humans really want to destroy the planet and make it uninhabitable for human life in the end. They are not fooling us though. Douche bags.

There is another potential problem that we face as well. As everyone knows these BIG OIL companies have their eyes on the Eestor product about to find it's way to market. And we also know that they will surely buy up everything associated with it as soon as it's proven to work. Without a doubt they will torpedo the EESU into the ground just like they did with those worthless first generation electric cars. And just like the EESU they will surely take this new technology of clean profitable diesel, that they spent billions on, and torpedo it too. That way they can continue their march to world destruction. Stay alert.

Now I know what your thinking. Don't we use their gas products to get to the store and buy food so that we can sit online all day and trash those bastards and eat chips. Don't we use trees too, when we rewrite all the childrens textbooks pointing out the evil of America? Let not your hearts be troubled on these matters. Yours is a righteous cause and you are all carbon neutral superior specimens. It is a necessary evil, (if there is such a thing), and we must see this to the end. May Obama bless you all and keep you safe. Amen.

Sincerely
USTHA President

---

just for the record, there have been huge housing fluctuations and poor lending in the past, what made this different was the explosion of the use of credit default swaps as an investment vehicle. Don't blame it all on one or the other.

It's possible that a substantial long-term reduction in oil demand will lower prices a great deal if we get it done in the next 15 years.

---

Heeman, what does USTHA stand for? The first Google result is a table hockey association. ??

---

farmEER
Sorry about that one. United States Tree Hugger Association. Of which I am the self appointed dear leader and President. Have a good night.

---

EEventually wrote:

just for the record, there have been huge housing fluctuations and poor lending in the past, what made this different was the explosion of the use of credit default swaps as an investment vehicle. Don't blame it all on one or the other.

As Jeff Rubin says "How large is Cleveland anyway" ?

Recession started in rest of the world before wallstreet melt down - and was deeper than in US.

---

Everyone wants to keep their respective rice bowls full as peak oil materializes (whenever you believe that to be). The coal industry wants to move to a coal to liquids paradigm producing liquid fuels using modernized Fischer Tropsch process. Big Oil wants to keep the pumps open using something that works best with their business model, biofuels. Exxon recently invested 600 Million with J. Craig Vetner's project to create genetically modified algae designed to express oil which can be skimmed from the surface of ponds, while Chevron has teamed in separate projects with Weyerhauser and DOE/NREL. Each of these solutions has major problems, economic, environmental, water usage, etc., but hope springs eternal. You decide if they are realists, altruists, or just responding out of fear that a disruptice technology will take them out of the game.

Taxbuster2 wrote:

Everyone wants to keep their respective rice bowls full as peak oil materializes (whenever you believe that to be). The coal industry wants to move to a coal to liquids paradigm producing liquid fuels using modernized Fischer Tropsch process. Big Oil wants to keep the pumps open using something that works best with their business model, biofuels. Exxon recently invested 600 Million with J. Craig Vetner's project to create genetically modified algae designed to express oil which can be skimmed from the surface of ponds, while Chevron has teamed in separate projects with Weyerhauser and DOE/NREL. Each of these solutions has major problems, economic, environmental, water usage, etc., but hope springs eternal. You decide if they are realists, altruists, or just responding out of fear that a disruptice technology will take them out of the game.

Peak oil will be such a huge problem that we'll need all the alternatives that are feasible. EV's might be a big part of the solution if only the energy storage problem can be solved, via eesu or better batteries. For a scary example of peak oil in the North Sea try the link below.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5836