TheEEStory.com

Below is an edited version of the chat which occurred on 03 Dec 2009, starting at 9:25pm ET. Posts have been combined and rearranged for reading order. In places where negative personal remarks were made, the screen name of the person referred to has been replaced by the labels {Denier 1} and {Denier 2}.

THREAD RULES

2. No personal attacks allowed. You're expected to act like an adult. If you can't, then don't post. Attacking someone's idea is okay. Attacking *them* is not. (I'm banning "Birthers" here because if they posted, I'd violate my own rule.)

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EDITED SUMMARY OF CHAT WITH PNeilson

PNeilson 10/2: So hbert - I have been thinking about raising my 2 score. But I forget is the second score for Zenn or EEStor? So if it is for EEStor its way up. But not so much for Zenn. In fact for EEStor I think I am up to a 7 or 8. But Zenn depends on the valuation of its exclusivity. Science is over - Engineered cost and final ED are the only open questions. I have done my homework and talked to those in the know. Cost Cost and Cost

hbert: PN, By your own definition first score is science second score is ability to manufacture/ cost

wasmaba: PN went 10 today or yesterday. :)

PNeilson 10/2: And DW is working like hell to reduce cost. Basically, after the info I got today I am in awe of DW. OK so now I should go to about a 10/6. All DW is worrying about is cost. Nothing else. But hitting cost is so hard.

hbert: PN, thanks. You are one of the people whose opinion I value on this subject.

PNeilson 10/2: Well hbert, as of this AM I got some inside info. About the best info you could get outside of DW himself

larry: ok PN, spill

PNeilson 10/2: Nah I am going to tease for a week at least. B has been teaching me how to do it!!

larry: did you sign an nda, PN?

PNeilson 10/2: Nope. Talked to vendors. Critical vendors. Very critical vendors. SO now I can tease away

larry: vendors selling parts of the production line equipment?

PNeilson 10/2: nope. Consumables

larry: have they gotten big orders?

PNeilson 10/2: Lets just say they are unhappy the orders are late

hbert: PN, slow down take a break and get rid of that damn 2!!!

PNeilson 10/2: no I have to think more about how to tease. Let's just say for the first time I am thinking of how much of my portfolio I should put in Zenn.

Yukon: if you have such great inside info why are yuo not a 10?

PNeilson 10/2: Cause what I learned confirmed what I have said before. Manufacturing this sucker is HARD!!!!

larry: zenn vendors or eestor vendors?

PNeilson 10/2: EEStor

Yukon: too hard?

PNeilson 10/2: Could be for now. Won't be too hard for ever.

pageman99: Remember guys he's CTO of an instruments company. Clue, clue. 8-) Labs.

PNeilson 10/2: It's so hard it makes {Denier 1} look like an idiot

pageman99: And I thought there would be a lull till January.

Lensman: PN, are you gonna give details or are you sworn to secrecy?

PNeilson 10/2: No no NDA or secrecy just discretion and unwillingness to turn off my source

Yukon: I would not call this news. Right now it is hearsay.

PNeilson 10/2: Oh I have news. But Yukon you are right, Its hearsay until I give up my source. And I am not doing that because I want to keep my source talking to me.

pageman99: Testing labs.

wasmaba: correct, those here say it is possible.

PNeilson 10/2: So to those who know me over the last year - take this to the bank, It works but its damn hard to build

Yukon: can you hint at when reveal will be?

PNeilson 10/2: No idea if or when there will be a reveal. Building a EESU is damn hard.

Yukon: I assume in June they knew how hard to build it would be. As recently as a week ago Catherine said Zenn expects to have the tech by year end. Are we on track?

PNeilson 10/2: If DW needs two or four more years it still has me in AWE

Lensman: PN, can you at least tell us why building an EESU is especially hard?

PNeilson 10/2: Lens just like I said some time ago. About 7 huge breakthroughs needed to make a EESU. By my best guess he has got about 5 of them down cold.

larry: if that damn hard to build; it can't be cheap.

PNeilson 10/2: Larry - thats about all I worry about now.

dfwrunner: if they are still that far away, they should not continue to tease about imminent reveals

PNeilson 10/2: From what I learned today DW knows all about cheap. No illusions about cheap on his part.

PNeilson 10/2: {Denier 2} calling DW delusional. What a crock. {Denier 2} is worse than delusional. Sort of a global warming fraud. No scam. Unbelievable work is going on in there. Nah - my source calls DW P.T. Barnum of energy storage.

Yukon: PN - your source is a customer waiting for an EESU or they are a vendor supplying parts to DW?

PNeilson 10/2: Vendor. And you don't sell a bunch of stuff to a scammer that he can't use

Yukon: do they sell forklifts?

PNeilson 10/2: Nah more like the most critical part of an EESU. I found it on the web. You can too. No special skills needed except google-fu. I found this about 2 months ago. They called me. Only two open questions - final ED and cost. And cost is bigger than ED

Yukon: is final ED trending higher then previously expected?

PNeilson 10/2: Could be but I did not get any info on that part. Just that everything was working better than DW expected

Yukon: why was this vendor so open with you? I assume they have an NDA?

PNeilson 10/2: Just need to know the right vendor I guess. So where is EEnigma tonight when I have news? EEn I have news!!!!! Buy Buy Buy

Eenigma: AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH -- I see the 10

dfwrunner: hey! insider trading!!!

PNeilson 10/2: no insider here. just hard work paying off

pageman99: dfw: this is a public forum no problem.

Yukon: PN you really should start a thread... for all those not in chat.

PNeilson 10/6: Nah - just chilling with my buds tonight. Now its official up to 10/6. EEn I talked to a very very critical vendor to EEStor today. They have been working with DW since 2003. Did my google fu and found a website. got some data and they called me

Eenigma: Ok vendor chat got you...as in supplier

PNeilson 10/6: DW is a genius

wasmaba: PN, you must be on the road.

PNeilson 10/6: Nah just got home. On the road tomorrow for one two weeks. Don't know when I will get time

Lensman: I'm guessing a vendor of some expensive consumable that EEStor uses in its manufacturing process? And not a vendor for manufacturing machines?

PNeilson 10/6: Lens - you are a genius. Cept DW has already figured out how to recycle

Lensman: PN: No, just paying close attention to what you're saying.

pageman99: OK, focus. Expensive consumable that can be recycled. Hmm...

PNeilson 10/6: Need to travel early tomorrow so I am running out of time

Lensman: Dang I wish we were in the same room with PN so we could shoot him full of sodium pentothal!

PNeilson 10/6: Lens - this was the real deal. Info from the horses mouth. In fact if I need to make some powder with EEV I know where to go

wasmaba: @PN, protect your source

PNeilson 10/6: Not the powder I learned how to make in my OChem class. That was simple. My Ochem final was 60 point for the synthesis of Cocaine

PNeilson 10/6: DW is the manufacturer. CW is the theorist. and Manufacturing is way harder than Theorizing

larry: so they may never lick the manufacturing issues?

Lensman: Yes, larry voices my concern. Sounds like they may never conquer that last one or two barriers/problems.

larry: but DW is not quite smart enough to get it totally finished;(

PNeilson 10/6: Finished for DW is $100 a KW. And that part is way hard. No breath holding. Don't wait or worry about the reveal. Worry about DW's health and bank account.

larry: PN, sounds like DW won't be revealing the eesu this year or next.

PNeilson 10/6: Larry - he will when it makes sense for him to reveal. From what I know - military apps are a slam dunk already

pageman99: Exactly. Military=Money.

larry: PN, zenn may not survive if DW can't deliver on budget soon.

PNeilson 10/6: larry - that is a real worry

pageman99: Why doesn't DW do high value low ed stuff. He's way ahead of others on that if manufacturing is the only problem?

PNeilson 10/6: I think DW is doing the high value stuff under wraps. Yield is too low to ramp. Its knowledge and experience that is short not money

pageman99: Yes, yield is a problem, but money can fix that based on what I think I know.

bitslider: news me

PNeilson 10/6: New sources of news have appeared today. And I am not going to piss off my source has we will talk again.

PNeilson 10/6: DW is not giving up control

wasmaba: PN, that was my argument as a novice

PNeilson 10/6: Yah but tonight its true.

pageman99: Jeez, he can have control. I'll call a senator. 8-)

PNeilson 10/6: Let DW have control and a blank check. I will work for him for free.

PNeilson 10/6: I have to go soon very soon. Wife is calling. Travel early in the AM.

PNeilson 10/6: later folks

bitslider: ok somebody seriously has to summarize. this chat reads like swiss cheese today

hillcountry: wonder if the expensive consummable is rare earth metal

Lensman: Rare earth? Could be, Dick mentioned a few of those in the leaked recording.

Chaplin: Read back - so he's talking recyclable/consumables.

bitslider: well i don't know what the hell is going on. was this good news, bad news, or what?

Excessive: Sounded like PN is definitely celebrating what he thinks is rock solid news.

larry: PN has been high on the science for a long time

pageman99: Hearsay, but pretty good hearsay.

colorodo: I think this is the third time in a week we have heard the same message from three different sources. Basicly the LM guy in the bar said dude it works just wait two years.

larry: now 'functional technology' makes more sense. frankly, I doubt that an eestor vendor knows where they stand on production.

PaulF: @larry, if he was suppling things like Yttrium and DW was buy it regularly, he would know.

pageman99: Can't be more than a couple of co.'s that supply the right purity. Google fu for Paul and a natural sales call as well. Good work!

Lensman: To summarize what PN said: The science is locked down solid, with no question. But the commercialization is harder than we realize. There were about 7 major barriers, of which Dick has solved five. What's left is the cost, and the question of the final ED. CN is basically out of the picture; the theory is done, the only obstacles are practical manufacturing ones. The manufacturing process is to the point that EEStor could supply a military contract; at this point the only barriers left are making it economical to produce. In other words: Cost, cost, cost. PN believes his info is rock-solid and comes from a supplier of a critical consumable for the manufacture of EESUs.

* * * *

(some time later...)

eestorblog: i want whatever was in Pneilson's Bombays last night. oh wait, I already have some of that from time to time.

PNeilson 10/6: Hi B. The Bombay was very good. But the half hour telcon I had with a vendor was even better.

Last edited Fri, 04 Dec 2009, 11:18pm by Lensman

Um..... whats a birther ?

Mark

Wikipedia article on "Birthers". Briefly, "Birthers" claim Barack Obama was not actually born in the United States, and is Constitutionally unqualified to be President.

Last edited Fri, 04 Dec 2009, 12:46pm by Lensman

Not to detour the parade, but does anybody else have a problem with Feature Posts of allegedly genuine insider info from a guy registered without a valid email address??

Lens, thanks...good stuff

Regarding:

PNeilson 10/2: So hbert - I have been thinking about raising my 2 score. But I forget is the second score for Zenn or EEStor? So if it is for EEStor its way up. But not so much for Zenn. In fact for EEStor I think I am up to a 7 or 8. But Zenn depends on the valuation of its exclusivity. Science is over - Engineered cost and final ED are the only open questions. I have done my homework and talked to those in the know. Cost Cost and Cost

Why Zenn so much lower possibilities than EEstor?
If it is significantly delayed, all they have to do is "run silent, run deep", cut expenses and be more like a holding company until the eesu is marketable, isn't it?

PNeilson is 100% believable on this and he "does" have a valid.

All I can add is you can thank Bombay for last nights chat.

see? It's all about component yield and they don't get parametric data until poling. If yields are low, they have to recycle to recover the most expensive materials. Yttrium and Neodymium. The rest of it is comparatively junk.

A very assertive application of equipment parameter based SPC will enable them to get a sharper yield learning curve. A highly capable data analyst/equipment engineer applied with them and got no response. Good luck to them.

There a a zillion little small variations that can kill yield and isolating those variations are hard. It requires instrumentation, proper sampling/filtering, charting, and then correlation with yield. You don't find out until you've pressed a thousand sheets of dielectric and if it scraps... you need to recover as much loss as possible.

There's a substantial amount of aluminum to recover too, now that I think of it. PET is cheap, Ca is cheap, Ba is cheap, Ti is cheap, Zr is cheap, Mn is cheap. Y is hard to isolate.

In fact, Y is hard to mine for too. It is not quite massive enough to precipitate like other RE materials. Good thing it's a small percentage of the formulation (unless of course they moved to the 33K Hansen formulation which will use big expensive piles of Yttrium).

Is the component hard to make or the assembly?.

I get the impression that they can make powders so perhaps the printing/sintering/ and poling process is giving yield issues?

I can also see how the mechanical assembly of components could pose problems seen at this stage of development.

Have these difficulties been recently discovered-that would point to assembly issues.

Someone please explain the google fu?

Eenigma wrote:

PNeilson is 100% believable on this and he "does" have a valid.


All I can add is you can thank Bombay for last nights chat.

We all have valid email addresses somewhere. Could you facilitate getting PN's to B so that he has a way to follow-up on this guy in the interest of, oh, say due dilligence?

I'm not 100% when I'm thanking Bombay. And I can hold my liquor.

sounds like Zenn will be dead long before the EESU is available. Zenn may have a contract of $100 - $150 per Kwh but the price could be higher for other companies. Even with a price equal to Li-ion it would still be a better deal because of life and recharge time. It could come to market at a higher price and still be competitive.

If PNeilson is talking with a vendor and the issue is "cost" one question to ask is whether DW is simply complaining about "costs of supplies" simply to get a lower price from this particular vendor?

How and why would a "vendor" be privy to the "total cost" issue at EEstor? Wouldn't DW keep his total cost close to his vest and simply bitch and complain about costs in order to get better pricing?

In fact, during the leak interview, DW refused to answer the question about his cost and simply responded: "I am not telling you my cost but I can tell you my price"...or something to that effect.

cechilders wrote:

sounds like Zenn will be dead long before the EESU is available. Zenn may have a contract of $100 - $150 per Kwh but the price could be higher for other companies. Even with a price equal to Li-ion it would still be a better deal because of life and recharge time. It could come to market at a higher price and still be competitive.

Y_No wrote:

If PNeilson is talking with a vendor and the issue is "cost" one question to ask is whether DW is simply complaining about "costs of supplies" simply to get a lower price from this particular vendor?

How and why would a "vendor" be privy to the "total cost" issue at EEstor? Wouldn't DW keep his total cost close to his vest and simply bitch and complain about costs in order to get better pricing?

In fact, during the leak interview, DW refused to answer the question about his cost and simply responded: "I am not telling you my cost but I can tell you my price"...or something to that effect.

Wow, good post Y_No
Indeed, it is always a matter of perspective!!!!

Could production delays be the reason Catherine changed the wording of what they expect to be delivered this year?

"EEStor has publicly indicated an objective of delivering functional technology to ZMC by the end of the calendar year,"

I think this was different than the previous production prototype

nekote wrote:

cechilders wrote:

sounds like Zenn will be dead long before the EESU is available. Zenn may have a contract of $100 - $150 per Kwh but the price could be higher for other companies. Even with a price equal to Li-ion it would still be a better deal because of life and recharge time. It could come to market at a higher price and still be competitive.

To ZENN's credit, they are assured of most favorable pricing. So even if $100 / kWh turns out to be unachievable, nobody else will get a better deal.

Wouldn't all they have to do is cut down expenses to the very minimum (as a holding company)?
And once this goes out, whatever the price they get, they can just charge a tiny bit higher without affecting the market. Beside they would still be 10.7% owner.
I don't understand the danger for Zenn?

I watched that whole chat unfold and was saddened to see my favorite gin unleash what any professional psychologist would term "abusively dysfunctional behavior"...the attacks were rampant and unwarranted and actually somewhat disturbing. If PN is correct, his message did not speak favorably for the survival of Zenn, or at least it's going to be even up to years before they have a working EESU...his words not mine.

Yes I believe something from someone will do what DW is trying to do - someday. I don't deny it, but if Zenn folds before "EESU I" is released, do all contracts with them become null, void and worthless?

EEventually wrote:

... In fact, Y is hard to mine for too. It is not quite massive enough to precipitate like other RE materials. Good thing it's a small percentage of the formulation (unless of course they moved to the 33K Hansen formulation which will use big expensive piles of Yttrium).

May make for some tough economic / ED choices.
Minimize Yttrium, go back to Zirconium at ~18%, but max K = 25,100

(Ba_0.9575Nd_0.0025Ca_0.04) [Ti_0.815Mn_0.0025Y_0.0025Zr_0.18]_0.995 O₃ = K_max 25100

(Ba_0.9575Nd_0.0025Ca_0.04) [Ti_0.815Mn_0.0025Y_0.18]_0.997 O₃ = K_max 33500

Thanks PN and the buds! Just give him two years doesnt jive well with demonstrating commercial viability in DEC. I see a bad moon arising for ZNN

WarrenD wrote:

Could production delays be the reason Catherine changed the wording of what they expect to be delivered this year?

"EEStor has publicly indicated an objective of delivering functional technology to ZMC by the end of the calendar year,"

I think this was different than the previous production prototype

While still proving the technology.

Nofallo wrote:

I watched that whole chat unfold and was saddened to see my favorite gin unleash what any professional psychologist would term "abusively dysfunctional behavior"...the attacks were rampant and unwarranted and actually somewhat disturbing. If PN is correct, his message did not speak favorably for the survival of Zenn, or at least it's going to be even up to years before they have a working EESU...his words not mine.

Yes I believe something from someone will do what DW is trying to do - someday. I don't deny it, but if Zenn folds before "EESU I" is released, do all contracts with them become null, void and worthless?

Again, I really don't see how Zenn could go bankrupt in this scenario. Worst case scenario they become just a holding company (holding 10.7% of Zenn)
Right?
Or is it because the price could go down and they get delisted and forced to close?

I'm just a horse so I don't know this listing rule stuff.

Robw wrote:

Lens, thanks...good stuff

I'll second that. Thanks for the edited version Lensman, and to Nekote for the more convoluted one on the other thread. PN, look after that informant of yours.

My first thought is that DW, in the leaked audio, didn't sound like a man who didn't think he could fulfil Zenn's $100kw price.

"I've got nothing left to prove now", I think were roughly his words. Is that just technologically or in price terms too?

Last edited Fri, 04 Dec 2009, 12:00pm by AD2

nekote wrote:

WarrenD wrote:

Could production delays be the reason Catherine changed the wording of what they expect to be delivered this year?

"EEStor has publicly indicated an objective of delivering functional technology to ZMC by the end of the calendar year,"

I think this was different than the previous production prototype

Good pickup - "functional technology" would also skirt any pricing / cost issues.

While still proving the technology.

At a minimum it would buy them time, "see it works" would still be huge

WarrenD wrote:

nekote wrote:

WarrenD wrote:

Could production delays be the reason Catherine changed the wording of what they expect to be delivered this year?

"EEStor has publicly indicated an objective of delivering functional technology to ZMC by the end of the calendar year,"

I think this was different than the previous production prototype

Good pickup - "functional technology" would also skirt any pricing / cost issues.

While still proving the technology.

At a minimum it would buy them time, "see it works" would still be huge

That would be enough. From that point on (after a demonstration that it works) at least Zenn can get customers in advance and get all the other ducks lined up nicely while EEStor perfects the art and drives costs down.

Pn may have a source but that source may just be a blind pygmy describing an elephant. Also the info may be dated. Cost problems may just be something to iron out and not insurmountable.

Watched the chat unfold last night. Good stuff. Here's what I took away.

PNeilson was trying to tell us but not directly to leave room for doubt. But he basically gave it away.

Lensman became a "genius" when he deduced that the vendor supplied consumables and not manufacturing equipment. Lensman hit the mark.

The production of EESU's is hard hard hard but it also works. That means waste.

DW is trying to address cost by *recycling*. Cost is DW main concern.

This vendor could help PNeilson and EEventually make *powders*.

I think DW is looking at an aqueous solution to break down and recycle defective EESUs en-masse in an effort to address cost. This vendor supplies something that goes into it. Probably another patent in the making.

hillcountry wrote:

Someone please explain the google fu?

As google has become the primary gateway though which things are found on the internet, the phrase "google fu" has been adapted from the above to refer to ones ability to find obscure and/or hidden information on the net by crafting google search terms appropriately.

arry: PN, zenn may not survive if DW can't deliver on budget soon.

PNeilson 10/6: larry - that is a real worry

My take is that if the science becomes proven and public, then Zenn gets access to capital even if the inital EESU cost is high due to their ownership stake in EEStor.

It could be nothing more than a learning curve that has caused a production problem. I could be that some variation in the powder production is causing a substantial failure rate of completed eesus. There were similar problems at the molecular level when transistor manufacturing first started.

If so, finding it and solving it, is the hold up.