Zenn share price based on type of permittivity announcements, 3rd party validated:
1) permittivity alone: maybe up to $5-$7, driven by people that don't understand that this is meaningless.
2) permittivity + voltage: $35-$100. This is basically confirmation that a dielectric material with the energy density claimed in the WIPO document - the science - is actually possible. Since this has historically been the first sticking point for many people regarding the viability of the EESU, this is the first big bump in share price.
3) permittivity + voltage + component: $50-$150 or more. This bump is larger because the only practical way to measure permittivity of a complete, functioning capacitor is to derive it from a charge/discharge cycle measurement, which means this is essentially DIRECT confirmation of the actual energy density of a working device.
4) perm + volts + component + prod. line: maybe $75-$175. Unlikely for all this to be announced. This is higher because of 3rd party confirmation that their test components came from a working production line. The bump here is obviously from confirmation that the production line to make these things actually works, which is big.
5) perm + volts + comp + prod + yield(throughput & unit cost): VERY unlikely for all this to be announced. Since this has historically been the second sticking point for many people regarding the viability of the EESU, this is the second big bump in share price. Maybe $100-$300. Really hard to judge this one since this is the point that starts to trigger risk-averse Big Money interest. Once the technology and the production levels are proven, the remaining hurdles (assembly, power electronics, safety certification, cycle-life, durability, temperature etc) are not show-stoppers and typically require only time, money, influence and proper marketing.
With the possible exception of case #5, Zenn stock issues are going to be VERY complex. Take case #2 for example - 3rd party verification of the science/technology. This MIGHT not be enough to get large established firms to dump hundreds of millions into building factories after gaining lisencing deals with EEStor (and the subsequent effect of that on Zenn stock value - which would now include 6.4% EEStor ownership), but it WOULD be enough to elicit large buy pressure on Zenn stock from established venture-oriented mutual funds and monied individuals. LOTs of money. All at once.
The question is, what would the trading dynamics be like? Say for instance ZNN goes to $50/share in the first 10 minutes of trading - who's selling? Would you sell at this point? The success of the EESU is still not certain at this point, and so there will be a little bit of profit taking (for whatever individual reasons), but success is now MUCH more likely, Zenn now owns 6.4% of EEStor, and the growth potential of the stock in terms of percentage increase in 5-10 years is so high it's difficult for me to believe my own estimates.
Who is going to sell more than a tiny fraction of what they are sitting on? Not me, bub. If it goes up over $100 I might sell another tiny bit, etc, but this will only continue until the price reaches a point where there is a tiny bit of buying pressure left, that more-or-less matches the tiny bit of selling desire, and then it'll level out, with VERY little daily trading volume holding up a HUGE share price. This situation is intrinsically unstable so there will probably be huge fluctuations around this new mean value, due to tiny bits and shards of news about production, as well as furious rumour/speculation. And I mean FURIOUS. Regular media as well.
Of course if permittivity announcement is skipped in favour of simply showcasing/delivering a working EESU, all of this is irrelevant and now you're trying to figure out the same points as above, but combining them with a working module rather than verified permittivity i.e. buyers will still have nagging questions of yield & cost, but the stock dynamics will be as outlined above - only on steroids.
Of course, all of this is just a rough guess from a market neophyte.
