TP likes imagining what a better future might look like. I thought I'd join in the fun. :-)

These are diesel lifecycle emissions today:

Extraction | 1.0628*((46.6327*0.43)+(79.1874*0.57)) = 69.28 grams CO2 / kg |

Oil transport | 1.0628*((17.8928*0.43)+(76.6231*0.57)) = 54.59 grams CO2 / kg |

Diesel refining | 360.42 grams CO2 / kg |

Diesel transport | 218.26 grams CO2 / kg |

Total | 702.55 grams CO2 / kg |

There are 3.1529736 kg for each gallon of diesel.

3.1529736kg/gallon * 702.55 grams CO2/kg = 2215.12 grams CO2/gallon

+ 10,084 = 12,299 grams CO2 / U.S. gallon of diesel

**What might diesel emissions look like in twenty years?**

The U.S. EIA expects to continue reducing the percentage of foreign oil consumed in the U.S. (to 50% in ten years) so in 20 years perhaps we could expect 55% of U.S. oil consumed to be produced in the U.S.

Looking at extraction, we can expect foreign exporters to reduce emissions to somewhere around the level the U.S. emits at. So instead of 79 grams for extraction, we might expect 50 grams. Instead of 77 grams for transport we might expect 70 grams.

In terms of diesel transport, we could probably expect similar increases to what Walmart is experiencing. Walmart is well on the way to a **100% increase in fleet efficiency** by 2015. Assuming a similar increase in efficiency for diesel transport, and we can expect emissions to be around 109 grams per kg.

We could then expect future emissions from petro-diesel to look something like the following.

Extraction | 1.0628*((46.6327*0.55)+(50*0.45)) = 51.17 grams CO2 / kg |

Oil transport | 1.0628*((17.8928*0.55)+(70*0.45)) = 39.16 grams CO2 / kg |

Diesel refining | 360.42 grams CO2 / kg |

Diesel transport | 109 grams CO2 / kg |

Total | 564.53 grams CO2 / kg |

There are 3.1529736 kg for each gallon of diesel.

3.1529736kg/gallon * 564.53 grams CO2/kg = 1,779.95 grams CO2/gallon

Adding that to per gallon driving emissions of 10,084 grams and: **Future petro-diesel emissions would look something like this**

10,084 grams CO2/gallon + 1,779.95 grams CO2/gallon = 11,864 grams CO2/gallon future lifecycle emissions for petro-diesel.

**What about farnesene?** We know it produces somewhere around **10%** of the emissions related to regular diesel, so we can estimate it.

**Farnesene lifecycle emissions should look something like this**:

12,299 grams CO2/gallon * 0.1 = 1,230 grams CO2/gallon lifecycle emissions for farnesene-diesel

**Results using the formula**:

(grams CO2 / U.S. gallon of diesel) / (Miles/ U.S. gallon of diesel) / (1.60934km / mile) = grams CO2/km lifecycle emissions

So the VW Jetta BlueMotion that gets 56 mpg U.S.;

Running on petro-diesel in 20 years would emit 132 gCO2/km

- on a 20% farnesene blend it would emit 108 gCO2/km

- on a 44% farnesene blend it would emit 80 gCO2/km

- on a 100% farnesene diesel it would emit 14 gCO2/km

I wonder what the Polo or the Ibiza would emit? And what about vehicles with even further increases in diesel efficiency?

Last edited Tue, 21 Sep 2010, 3:53am by student

Bill Nye says limits for a dielectric are simply what have been demonstrated to date.

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